Will October bring relief to Indian stocks after a bruising September

September hurt. The Nifty fell 6.7 per cent during the derivatives series, the weakest among major Asian markets, while Bank Nifty slipped 5.7 per cent. Costly crude, the American ten year yield near 5.2 per cent and steady foreign selling did the damage, taking the Nifty to around 22,620.

October usually brings festive cheer, but conditions look different this time. Brokerages expect a volatile start, with support near 22,350 and resistance around 23,400. Relief could come if foreign investors cover their short positions, oil cools further, or the rupee steadies. Each depends on events beyond anyone’s forecast.

Seasonal patterns make poor investment plans. Markets have fallen roughly 10 per cent from recent highs, which historically is an ordinary correction rather than a crisis. So keep your SIPs running, add gradually if your equity share has slipped below target, and judge this patch three years from now.