Market Outlook – Early August 2025

There’s a shift underway in the way markets are reacting to geopolitical headlines. Investors are being forced to recalibrate assumptions, because global trade policies, especially those coming from the US are no longer anchored in consistency. This is especially relevant for Indian equity investors today, as US-India trade tensions have taken centre stage.

The sudden imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian imports by President Trump from August 1, 2025, has rattled sentiment. The trigger is India’s continued import of discounted Russian oil, something Trump wants curbed. Talks for a comprehensive India-US trade agreement have broken down, and this unpredictability is what’s causing deeper damage than the tariffs themselves. When trade negotiations fail and policy becomes volatile, markets are left second-guessing.

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