Can India’s War Footing Mindset Protect Its Economy From a Distant Crisis?

When PM urged citizens to work from home, use public transport, skip overseas vacations, postpone gold purchases, and reduce cooking oil consumption, all to conserve fuel and foreign exchange at a time when the West Asia war has pushed Brent crude past $103 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and India, which imports nearly 85 to 90 per cent of its crude oil, is acutely exposed to every dollar rise in global energy prices.

The government is now moving from appeal to action, and the finance ministry has already begun internal deliberations. Officials are examining options such as work-from-home guidance for sectors that do not require physical presence, and stakeholder consultations with industry are being planned. They have, sensibly, ruled out curbs on outward remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, recognising that blocking capital flows would send exactly the wrong signal to investors. Every $10 per barrel rise in oil, sustained over a year, adds roughly $13–14 billion to India’s import bill, so even modest behavioural changes across millions of households and offices carry real fiscal weight.

India Inc is watching closely because the war is already reshaping quarterly numbers, with Reliance Industries reporting a 12.5 per cent drop in March-quarter profit partly on weaker energy earnings. Brent was trading around $72 a barrel before the war began in late February and has since moved well above $100, with Kotak Securities warning it could hit $130–140 if the conflict drags on. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran has expressed confidence that India can absorb the shock if the ceasefire holds and energy prices normalise by the third quarter, but the government’s message to both citizens and corporations is clear: act now, conserve what you can, and buy India the time it needs.

Try our free Gold Investment Calculator →