Can India really grow at 6.6% real GDP this year?

Yes, 6.6% real GDP growth is feasible because the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook pegs FY26 at 6.6% on the back of a strong first‑quarter print and resilient domestic demand, keeping India ahead of China’s 4.8% projection. This refers to real GDP growth, not nominal growth, and it captures inflation‑adjusted expansion in output. The projection also notes momentum may cool in FY27 toward 6.2% as early strength fades.

Why this looks achievable is the mix of services strength, ongoing public capex, and formalisation supporting productivity and logistics so firms can scale output and jobs. The finance ministry and trackers cluster growth around 6.3–6.8% for FY26, consistent with the IMF baseline at 6.6%. This breadth of drivers helps cushion trade headwinds and keeps macro stability intact.

But some risks remain, so policy steadiness matters. US tariff actions and a weaker global cycle could weigh on manufacturing exports and private capex timing, which is why the IMF pencils in moderation next year. Staying near mid‑6% needs rebuilding fiscal buffers, low and stable inflation, and steady reforms that raise productivity and employment.