How will an additional US tariff affect India’s export-driven sectors?

The decision by the US to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50%,primarily in reaction to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil could mark a major turning point for bilateral trade relations. While key Indian exports such as steel, pharmaceuticals, mobile phones, and computer chips are exempt from the new duties, the sweeping hike captures a broad range of products. The American administration justifies the move by linking India’s energy transactions with Russia to broader geopolitical concerns, arguing that such trade indirectly supports Russia’s war efforts. For India, however, the import of Russian oil is framed as a question of national security and energy affordability.

Among the most severely affected sectors will be textiles, gems, and jewellery. These industries drive India’s export economy, particularly in the US market, where they sell a significant portion of their products. Smaller manufacturers and exporters, who lack the scale to absorb higher costs or quickly diversify to new markets, are likely to bear the brunt of these punitive tariffs. Trade experts estimate that these increased duties could slash Indian goods exports to the US by almost a third a blow that could put thousands of jobs at risk and challenge the resilience of India’s manufacturing ecosystem.

In response, India’s government has strongly criticised the decision and signaled its determination to act in the country’s best interest, especially given the strategic importance of affordable energy. While both sides have maintained critical trading relationships for years, this escalation threatens to tip the scales toward an extended trade dispute. Whether through dialogue or redirected trade strategies, much will depend on how both governments recalibrate their approach in the coming months to prevent long-term economic fallout and preserve diplomatic ties.

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