US–Venezuela Conflict : Why Does India Barely Feel the Heat

India today buys very little crude from Venezuela, so the latest US–Venezuela flare up creates more headlines than real pain for our fuel bill. In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela were only 364.5 million dollars and crude oil was just 255.3 million dollars, down 81.3 percent from 1.4 billion dollars a year earlier. So Venezuelan barrels now form a tiny fraction of India’s annual crude import bill of over 100 billion dollars, which keeps the direct shock quite small.

At the same time, India has quietly reshaped its crude basket and now leans far more on Russia and West Asia. Russian crude has jumped from about 2 percent of India’s imports in FY2020 to roughly 35–40 percent by FY2025, while Middle East suppliers still provide a little over 40 percent of our needs. This spread across Russia, the Gulf, the US and Africa means any squeeze on Venezuelan flows can usually be offset by extra cargoes from other regions without a big spike in average import costs.

Still, US–Venezuela tension can nudge Brent and the Indian basket for a while, and that matters because India imports about 240 million tonnes of crude a year and depends on imports for nearly 89 percent of its oil use. Even so, recent numbers show some comfort, as the average price of India’s crude basket has eased from about 84 dollars a barrel in March 2024 to nearly 72 dollars in March 2025, helping contain the overall oil bill despite geopolitical noise. And when global prices do jump, India has policy tools like excise tweaks and strategic reserves which help smooth pump prices so that temporary shocks abroad do not turn into lasting pain at Indian petrol pumps.