Can Indian refiners keep margins steady even as Russian oil volumes fall?

Indian refiners are seeing lower Russian crude volumes due to sanctions, but their maths still works because Brent prices are soft and Moscow’s Urals discounts have widened again. So even with fewer Russian barrels, per barrel refining margins look reasonably stable for now.

Refiners are replacing sanctioned Russian supplies with crude from the Middle East, US and other regions, while still buying some non sanctioned Russian cargoes at steeper discounts. Ratings agencies expect Indian oil marketing companies to keep gross refining margins near mid cycle levels of about 6 dollars a barrel if global crude stays around forecast ranges.

For Indian consumers and the economy, this mix means pump prices and the import bill are under control today, but they remain exposed to any jump in Brent or any narrowing of Russian discounts. So India’s energy security is comfortable in the short term, yet sensitive to shifts in geopolitics and oil supply