India\u2019s retail inflation fell to a record low of 0.25% in October 2025, far below the RBI\u2019s 2\u20136% band and market forecasts, because food prices fell sharply and GST rate cuts worked through the index for a full month. Food inflation was \u20135.02% year-on-year, with vegetables down about 27.6%, aided by improved supplies and a strong base from last year. The headline print dropped from a revised 1.44% in September, which lifted hopes for policy support while reminding that the fall may be temporary as base effects fade.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clear and broad drivers across food and essentials eased daily budgets, as prices of vegetables, fruits, oils and fats, and eggs softened together.\u200b The September 22 GST rationalisation had its first full-month effect in October and lowered prices across several CPI categories, amplifying disinflation. A high base from October 2024 made the October 2025 number even lower, delivering the series-low print in the 2012-base CPI series tracked by MoSPI.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For policy and growth, this undershoot supports a growth-friendly stance because lower inflation eases pressure on real incomes and can create space for rate cuts if the trend holds. The RBI\u2019s guidance has pointed to a softer path, with forecasts around 2.6% for FY26 as GST cuts and easier food prices work through, while tracking global commodity and domestic demand risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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